Saturday, January 23, 2010
The risk of high growth
China has posted 10.7% growth rate for the last quarter year-on-year. This rate of growth, by any standard, is above impressive and give rise to inflationary pressure on China's economy. The government is now confronting with serious challenge in containing assets bubble and rapid increase in prices of daily consumable goods and services. My view is the government will soon perform withdrawal of its massive stimulus package amid gradually, and begin the tightening of credit creation to reign in lending activities, particularly to property sector, consumer credits, and speculative investment activities. Having said that, any measure to cool the economy invites unwanted potential surge in unemployment, which could threaten the societal stability that form the pivotal hold for the government's stability. One other concern is should the cooling effect proved to be potent, the 'over capacities' in China manufacturing could pose deflationary risk and this problem could only get magnified in the sluggish global recovery that just set itself in the path of slow recovery.