Saturday, January 23, 2010

The risk of high growth

China has posted 10.7% growth rate for the last quarter year-on-year. This rate of growth, by any standard, is above impressive and give rise to inflationary pressure on China's economy. The government is now confronting with serious challenge in containing assets bubble and rapid increase in prices of daily consumable goods and services. My view is the government will soon perform withdrawal of its massive stimulus package amid gradually, and begin the tightening of credit creation to reign in lending activities, particularly to property sector, consumer credits, and speculative investment activities. Having said that, any measure to cool the economy invites unwanted potential surge in unemployment, which could threaten the societal stability that form the pivotal hold for the government's stability. One other concern is should the cooling effect proved to be potent, the 'over capacities' in China manufacturing could pose deflationary risk and this problem could only get magnified in the sluggish global recovery that just set itself in the path of slow recovery.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

What do you think of China's appetite for oil consumption in the future?

China has surpassed US as the biggest car market in the world with 13.6 million cars sold last year. Assuming the average size engine is 1.5L, with average monthly petrol consumption at 60 litres, the annual petro consumption for these 13.6 million cars will be 9.8 billion litres. On average, 1 barrel of crude oil could process out 19.5 gallons of petrol (1 gallon:3.785 litres) so it will take 504 million barrels of crude oil to produce 9.8 billion litres of petrol. On daily term, China will require 1.38 million barrels of crude oil to power these 13.6 million new cars. What do you think of China's appetite for oil consumption in the future?

Saturday, January 16, 2010

The word 'Allah'

I don't see any issue in using the word 'Allah' by other religions. Those who protest are clearly misled. For the record, the word 'Allah' has been used for a long time by other religions in their holy scripts hence set the precedent to illustrate the point this issue is not new. In Indonesia, this is more prevalent. The recent attacks on Churches and a Sikh temple have crossed the 'sensitive' line. Now, more than ever, the polarization is more visible and the trust between races is probably at new low. I even see a great divide among the Malays between the moderate and 'protests'. This is not an issue to press for 'winning attitude' but one of understanding of self and others living in the context of coexistence. The rights to worship should be a universal doctrine for all to accept just like how it was practised during the Prophet's time. The slow response from government in this episode further convinced me it is always politics over the-right-thing-to-do, but clearly this approach may backfire. 1Malaysia has a long way to go and I remain sceptical if it will ever reach its destination.