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What's in the future for investors--another roaring bull market or more upset stomach? Amazingly, the answer may come down to three simple factors. Here, the world's most celebrated investor talks about what really makes the market tick--and whether that ticking should make you nervous. By Warren Buffett; Carol Loomis December 10, 2001 (FORTUNE Magazine) – Two years ago, following a July 1999 speech by Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, on the stock market--a rare subject for him to discuss publicly--FORTUNE ran what he had to say under the title "Mr. Buffett on the Stock Market" (Nov. 22, 1999). His main points then concerned two consecutive and amazing periods that American investors had experienced, and his belief that returns from stocks were due to fall dramatically. Since the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 11194 when he gave his speech and recently was about 9900, no one yet has the goods to argue with him. So where do we stand now--with the stock...

According to investing guru Warren Buffett, U.S. stocks are a logical investment when their total market value equals 70% to 80% of Gross National Product. By Carol J. Loomis and Doris Burke February 4, 2009: 9:49 AM ET According to both this 85-year chart and famed investor Warren Buffett, it just might be. The point of the chart is that there should be a rational relationship between the total market value of U.S. stocks and the output of the U.S. economy - its GNP. Fortune first ran a version of this chart in late 2001 (see "Warren Buffett on the stock market" ). Stocks had by that time retreated sharply from the manic levels of the Internet bubble. But they were still very high, with stock values at 133% of GNP. That level certainly did not suggest to Buffett that it was time to buy stocks. But he visualized a moment when purchases might make sense, saying, "If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% to 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you...

In the US, extravagance is a normal way of life. In China, it is a sin. Such contrasting consumer psyche between the two economies needs to be evened out before a sustained recovery of the post-bubble global economy can be achieved in the longer run, says Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. In a talk given to the Asia Society Hong Kong Centre entitled “Pitfalls in a Post-Bubble World,” Roach warns that the pain of the global recession caused by the bursting of asset and credit bubbles has only just begun to take its toll on export-dependent Asian economies. “Obviously we’re in a global recession. It’s a severe one. But it is a unique one. It is a post-bubble recession brought about by the bursting of multiple-asset credit bubbles around the world. So do not go back to your economic history or your textbook to try to figure out how to calibrate this cycle.” “The cycle, itself prompted by the bursting of asset and credit bubbles, is very much intertwined w...

THE economic outlook looks grim over the next two years, says Blackrock head of asset allocation and economics Richard Urwin. But there are opportunities in the credit space, for instance, as clients seek yields higher than cash. And, Asia may yet see a recovery ahead of developed markets as monetary stimulus is likely to show benefits sooner. 'Easier monetary policies have the best chance of working probably in Asia where the financial system is under less pressure and the banking system is less leveraged. At some stage Asian equities could start to do better (than developed markets).' Earlier, Blackrock vice-chairman Bob Doll issued his predictions for 2009, markedly more muted than his predictions for 2008 which had been off the mark. The deterioration in markets and economies since the Lehman Brothers' failure has taken most strategists and analysts by surprise. Mr Urwin told journalists yesterday that the macro environment is 'very challenging' and while a reco...

AS unprecedented stress struck the core of the global financial system last year, it was clear to many observers that a worldwide recession was on the way. Citi analysts expect major industrial economies to contract well into 2009 as adjustments occur to raise the level of savings in these economies. And while the pace of contraction in global growth is expected to ease moving into the second half of the year, next year's expected economic recovery is forecast to be modest, with growth likely to remain below trends seen before the current crisis. From a market perspective, this backdrop suggests investors should continue to expect 2008-style volatility in the early part of this year. Looking further ahead, though, downside risks to economic growth are expected to dissipate as global fiscal stimulus efforts gather speed and de-leveraging pressures ease. When this happens, the extreme valuations in equity and credit markets seen today should provide attractive opportunities for inves...

(NEW YORK) THE collapse of the US housing market helped Bill Gross outperform 99 per cent of his fund-manager peers over the past five years. Now he's betting on securities that may benefit from rescue efforts in Washington. The 64-year-old co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co is urging investors to anticipate which assets will benefit as the government struggles to boost the economy. Last week he recommended municipal bonds, inflation-protected Treasuries and debt the US government plans to buy. In the past six months, Mr Gross bought senior bank debt, agency mortgage securities and preferred shares in financial companies, all before the government did the same. Mr Gross, who keeps the attention of investors through a combination of performance, monthly commentaries and television appearances, navigated through the worst credit crisis since the Great Depression, said Lawrence Jones, a senior mutual fund analyst with Morningstar Inc. Mr Gross's US$128...