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This Recession Was Brought to You by the Letters U, V and L

A popular question [1] for economists lately has been what shape this recession will take. Will it be a “U,” a “V,” or maybe an “L”? Could we even find ourselves caught up in the roller coaster of a “W,” just when we think we’ve finally voted out that letter once and for all? What’s with the alphabet soup? This categorization is a kind of verbal shorthand for describing the shape of the ups and downs of the gross domestic product and the broader economy. It’s not an exact science, which is part of the reason there’s so much debate [2] about which type the United States is experiencing. There’s no governing body or think tank tasked with crunching the numbers and officially declaring a recession one letter or another. In general, V-shaped recessions are those that last for a few quarters, while the more unpleasant U-shaped recessions can drag on for up to a couple of years. It’s the difference between a head cold that clears your system in a week and a case of bronchitis that leaves y
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Steam Bath

Iceland: a transit point between Greenland and Britain in the board game Risk to some, a source of lush adventurous pop music for others, and a blank to many. The small, rocky outcropping of 300,000 people and (allegedly) 500,000 sheep usually doesn’t get our attention. But this week, the banking crisis that has swept across North America and Europe is dealing a mortal blow to the entire country. The government nationalized or took control of its three biggest banks this week, its debt has been downgraded, and its plunging króna currency is barely trading on the international market. The crisis has even taken on a geopolitical tint; our NATO ally is in talks with Russia for a 4 billion euro loan, a move that would nearly double its foreign-currency reserves. Why are Iceland’s banks so big, and why are they, the currency, and the national economy in such trouble today? Quite simply, leverage. Like a light-swinging baseball player who’s just discovered creatine, Iceland’s banks bulked up
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City State Ponders Its Future

Last Saturday (14 June 2008), I came across an article written by columnist, Seah Chiang Nee, on his weekly ‘Insight Down South’, on The Star. The writer sighted waning interest among many in Singapore in areas that were the cornerstone of Singapore’s development, i.e., engineering and even legal profession which experiences shrinking supply amid rising demand for lawyers. Retired civil servant, Ngiam Tong Dow was quoted to express concern with the present development. According to him, “Britain’s economic decline set in because the best and brightest from Oxbridge, instead of going into engineering and running factories, went into the (financial) City of London... they are not creators of wealth, they just shuffling asserts around the place. In US, the best went to Wall St, their best still go into engineering. This trend is not unique to Singapore. Many countries, in pursuit of greater socio-economic growth, are facing such reality. But this is never an easy issue to tackle and any p
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